NJ & VA Governor Races: Why These 2025 Elections Matter After the Big Vote

Politics, right? It just never stops. And get this: the two big governor races happening later this year in New Jersey and Virginia? They're already a much bigger deal than just local issues. Coming right after that wild 2024 presidential election, these contests are a huge test for both major parties. Think of them as a crystal ball, offering a sneak peek at what voters are thinking and where the country is headed before the 2026 elections even start.

After 2024: What's Really Happening Out There?

The 2024 presidential election left a pretty messy picture. Both sides probably felt like they won, but one thing's for sure: the country was (and still is!) super divided. Now, everyone's looking at these key state races for answers.

Like Dr. Evelyn Reed, who runs the American Governance Institute, put it in The New York Times:

'Elections at the state level right after a presidency often show us how the whole country is feeling. They reveal how fast—or slow—voters' priorities and loyalties are changing. These 2025 races are exactly like that, ready to show us if last year's big national stories still matter locally, or if brand-new issues will take the lead.'

No big surprise here: money worries are a massive deal. Folks are still feeling that squeeze from rising prices and a job market that feels a bit wobbly. Even though national economic numbers are a mixed bag, a report from Moody's Analytics this summer said many states in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic are still struggling with high costs. It's really hitting family budgets hard.

New Jersey's Price Tag Battle: Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli

Down in New Jersey, the fight for governor between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli is super tight. What's shaping this race? Mostly one thing: how expensive life is there. It's a problem people are seeing everywhere, not just in Jersey.

Money Troubles and How Voters Feel

Let's be real: New Jersey is one of the priciest places to live. That fact is right at the heart of both campaigns.

Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat who's been in Congress for four terms, is all about helping people save money. She's even pushed back hard on her own party's governor, Phil Murphy, about crazy high electricity bills. Recently, she promised to freeze utility rates for a whole year. She even put it on X (you know, Twitter), saying she was “tired” of people doubting her. Her promise? 'I’m going to get it done for NJ families.' That's a strong statement, and it's personal.

Talking directly about those everyday costs? It really hits home for voters feeling the squeeze. A poll from Monmouth University this August, their 'Swing State Snapshot,' backed this up, showing that money worries are the top concern for people in this region. It's not just a talking point; it's real life.

On the other side, there's Jack Ciattarelli, who used to be a state assemblyman. He's smart about presenting himself as the guy who'll shake things up. He often calls Sherrill 'Phil Murphy 2.0,' trying to link her to the current governor. Why? He's hoping voters are just plain tired of Murphy's two terms and want a fresh start.

Both candidates have raised tons of money, too. Each got over $5 million in public matching funds (that's money from the state, matching what they raise). What does that mean? This race is expensive and intense. Expect a huge wave of ads after Labor Day, especially in the pricey New York City and Philadelphia TV markets. Your TV will be full of them!

The Trump Effect: A Tricky Path for Ciattarelli

Okay, let's talk about the elephant in the room: Donald Trump. His shadow is everywhere in this race, just like it is in national Republican politics.

Ciattarelli got Trump's backing in the primary, and usually, he's on board with Trump's ideas. But sometimes, he does go his own way. For instance, he spoke out against a plan to put immigrant detainees at a military base in New Jersey. It's a tricky path.

It's a tough tightrope walk for him: get Trump's most loyal supporters fired up, but also win over independent voters and even some moderate Democrats. This is a real test for Republicans everywhere.

Democrats, on the other hand, are trying hard to tie Ciattarelli directly to Trump. They point to Trump's big ideas, like huge tariffs (extra taxes on imported goods) and that controversial 'big, beautiful bill.' They say those plans would actually hurt New Jersey's economy.

Sean Higgins, Sherrill's campaign spokesman, spelled it out:

'The core difference in this race is that Mikie Sherrill will take on anyone — from Trump to her own party — to deliver for New Jersey, where Jack Ciattarelli only answers to Trump.'

This whole situation shows a bigger trend we're seeing across the country: Republican candidates in states that swing both ways (we call them 'purple states') are struggling. How do they support Trump without turning off other important groups of voters? It's a tough spot, and no easy answers.

Virginia's Tightening Race: Spanberger's Lead Shrinks as Earle-Sears Makes a Comeback

Over in Virginia, it's Democrat Abigail Spanberger against Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. Spanberger used to have a pretty big lead. Not anymore. Things have gotten much tighter, making this another race everyone's glued to.

Economic Policy and the "MAGA Republican" Label

Spanberger's campaign started strong by really hitting Earle-Sears on Trump's 'big, beautiful bill.' They focused on how it would mess with programs like Medicaid (healthcare for low-income people) and food assistance. Democrats keep saying Earle-Sears just brushed off these worries.

And get this: a report from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities showed that some federal law changes did put a lot of pressure on state budgets. This means tough choices for important services. Spanberger's recent ad, which calls Earle-Sears a 'MAGA Republican,' really tries to drive that point home.

But Earle-Sears' campaign? They changed gears. After some team changes this summer – folks said her campaign was a bit all over the place – she's now focusing on 'common sense' issues. And she's really linking herself to the popular Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, who can't run again. Her newest TV ad even has Youngkin himself, saying great things about her work on the economy and schools. She's clearly trying to use his popularity to her advantage.

Local Issues and Surprising Endorsements

And guess what? This new strategy seems to be working. A recent Roanoke College poll showed Spanberger's big lead getting smaller. She's now up 46% to 39% among likely voters. That gap is so close, it's basically a tie when you factor in the poll's margin of error. That's a huge change from polls in July and May, where Spanberger was way ahead.

What's happening? It looks like voters are finally paying attention as early voting gets closer. This has given the Earle-Sears team a lot more hope, even if one Republican insider admitted it's still an 'uphill' climb. Every vote counts now.

Here's another twist: Spanberger just got a big thumbs-up from the Virginia Police Benevolent Association. That's the biggest police union in the state. This helps her and really messes with the Republican message on crime.

Why is that a big deal? Well, this same union actually supported Earle-Sears back in 2021 when she ran for lieutenant governor. They've also backed other Republicans this year. So, this isn't their usual move.

This surprising move shows that Spanberger, a former CIA officer, can earn trust even from groups that usually stick to one party, especially on public safety. Republicans love talking about crime, especially after recent talks about federal help in cities, like Trump sending National Guard troops to D.C. This endorsement is a major win for her.

National Vibes and What's Next for 2026

So, as we race towards Election Day, these two governor races are giving us some major clues about where American politics is headed. New Jersey and Virginia are different politically, sure. But they're both dealing with the same stuff: money problems and the long shadow of big national politicians.

The results will tell us a lot:

• What kind of messages actually connect with voters after a presidential election?
• Which candidates truly resonate with people?

This means big lessons for both parties as they eye the 2026 elections and beyond. Will national divides keep running state politics? Or can local issues and a real, genuine candidate find a new way forward? These races will tell the tale, plain and simple.